Аналитика
BOE minutes: GBPUSD could be picked up on the dips
The tone to the BOE minutes from the October meeting was upbeat, suggesting that the Bank was happy with the progress made on the economic front and overall, the Committee was not too worried about the ensuing US government shut down and fiscal crisis. Here are the key points from the minutes:
Источник: Forex.com
23.10.2013
US Sept. Employment report underwhelms, but details point to a more modest outlook
Today’s US September employment report came in weaker than consensus, surprising the market with a headline print of +148K versus expectations of +180K – Additionally, the prior monthly revisions were mixed, with August increasing by 24K and July seeing a subtraction of 15K (net revision +9K). Altogether, this sees the 6-month NFP average increase marginally to 162.8K from 160K. As a result US treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield dropping from around 2.58% pre-NFP to 2.53% within a matter minutes and this saw the USD get hit – EURUSD broke to a new 2013 high (above 1.3710) as noted as a potential scenario yesterday: EURUSD hovers just below 2013 high ahead of US Sept. NFP report.
Источник: Forex.com
22.10.2013
Small improvement in September payrolls may take a backseat to fiscal uncertainty
On Tuesday, October 22, at 0830ET/1230GMT, the US is expected to report a change in total non-farm payrolls of +180K (prior +169K; range +256/100K) and a steady unemployment rate of 7.3% (prior 7.3%; range 7.4/7.1%), according to Bloomberg market surveys. Our forecast model indicates a September headline NFP number of +175K jobs, which is slightly below consensus forecasts. The data is being released later than usual due to the government shutdown earlier this month. The collection of the data was most likely unaffected by the shutdown, as it was done in September, and only the processing of the data was delayed.
Источник: Forex.com
21.10.2013
Gold: key resistance thwarting upside at $1,328
After a hefty rally yesterday the gold price is taking a breather today after hitting some resistance at 1,328 – the 100-day moving average. The driver of gold price strength appeared to be dollar weakness and the decline in Treasury yields, rather than safe haven flows. Ahead today, a slew of Fed speakers could impact the price of gold, if they sound dovish then we may see further gains for the yellow metal. Throughout the recent stand-off in Washington the yellow metal struggled, suggesting that it is not the asset of choice to hedge US political risk. Thus, the future direction of the gold price could be dependent on the buck.
Источник: Forex.com
18.10.2013
S&P500 makes a new All-time high...Is 1750 potentially next?
A little over a month ago we stated that “the S&P500 appears to have formed a Positive Reversal, whereby weekly RSI made a lower low but price made a higher low…this bullish development suggests we could see a retest of the All-time high at 1709.67 and if this gives way it could open the door to a potential test of the positive reversal measured move objective around 1750 over the coming weeks.”
Источник: Forex.com
17.10.2013
US DEBT CEILING: We have a deal!
The US Congress has passed a bill which will keep the government funded until January 15 and suspend the debt ceiling through February 7. The bill easily made it through the Senate and then passed its second test in the House of Representatives, before being given to President Obama for its final tick of approval. The White House Budget office has announced that the US government will reopen tomorrow.
Источник: Forex.com
16.10.2013
Treasury market still expecting a deal
The Treasury market seems to be taking the view that even if we go over the 17th October deadline a deal will be reached in the proceeding days to raise the debt ceiling until February. Thus, although the House Republicans look like they may have thrown a spanner in the works to raise the debt ceiling before the 17th Oct deadline, bond investors are sanguine. Ironically, if we do go over the debt ceiling deadline this could be the best outcome as it may force both sides to reach an agreement pretty quickly.
Источник: Forex.com
15.10.2013
USDJPY may be poised for a break higher
USDJPY has recovered all of this week’s opening losses. The pair gapped lower at the opening of trade for the week after a very bullish speech by BoJ Kuroda and concerns about the US debt ceiling. Now, however, USDJPY has soared to a key resistance zone around 98.60/70 on the back of a possible resolution to the debacle in the US.
Источник: Forex.com
14.10.2013
Gold: Losing grip on post-FOMC gains
Gold’s post FOMC rally seems to have run out of steam as profit-taking hits before the weekend. We are approaching a key test for the yellow metal – can it manage to stay above key 100 and 50-day sma supports at $1,345-48?
Could the limited gains in the gold price this week suggest that the market is focusing on the prospect of tapering later this year, or under the new governor in 2014? Interestingly, the gold price rally did not surpass the highs from late August above $1,400, suggesting that thoughts of tapering are not too far away from the market’s consciousness, which could keep a lid on the gold price for the medium-term, leaving scope for further downside.
Источник: Forex.com
20.09.2013
FOMC decided not to Taper QE at their September meeting
Today’s FOMC statement produced no major changes to monetary policy:
Maintains $85B a month pace of purchasing Treasuries & Mortgage Backed Securities
Kept rates at 0-0.25% as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5% and 1-2 year projected inflation remains below 2.5%
Key proclamations within the statement:
Источник: Forex.com
19.09.2013
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